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Pulp prices set to peak in 2014

2012-11-05  For the past two years, Calejo Pulp Futures’ price forecasts for long-fiber pulp (NBSK) have pointed to a distinct trend reversal in autumn 2012. In the years immediately ahead, gradual price increases are forecast for NBSK, with ultimately very high levels, according to the Nordic Paper Journal.

Calejo Pulp Futures predicted, with very good timing, the fateful


financial crisis in 2009. And when most other market analysts last


autumn indicated continuing high levels of pulp prices, Calejo turned


to the Swedish and international media to warn of a new trend reversal


during late summer 2011 with declining pulp prices – which actually


occurred. This was an insight that Calejo’s customers had already


possessed for more than two years.


Now a trend reversal upward is predicted and highly favorable times for


pulp mills, with record-high prices for NBSK toward the close of 2013


and into 2014. Prices are forecast to reach well over USD 1,000 per


ton.


Calejo’s forecast model is unique and is on the absolute leading edge


technologically. It is based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and


is self-learning on the basis of the historical statistics used. The


accuracy, meaning the ability to forecast trend reversals and price


trends two years ahead, has historically been 86 percent.

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